Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
